The Potential of Internal Migration to Shape Rural and Urban Populations across Africa, Asia and Latin America

Ashira Menashe-Oren, Universite catholique de Louvain (UCL)
Philippe Bocquier, UCLouvain

Sub-national divergence in the age and sex structures of populations can have far-stretching consequences for development: from marriage markets to the potential for violence to economic growth. With urbanisation and the demographic transition still underway, rural and urban populations continue to differ across low- and middle-income countries. We examine the extent by which internal migration contributes to these differences, from 1970-2014 using estimates of migration between rural and urban sectors from on census data available from 45 countries. We found that despite heavily delineated migration profiles by age and sex, internal migration does not alter rural/urban population structures. All the same, internal migration increases urban growth in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. In contrast, in Africa, internal migration has little leverage with the urban transition. Across the continents there is a potential for de-urbanisation, driven by a rural/urban gap in fertility.