Do Desired Family Size Questions Measure Current Demand for Childbearing? An Analysis of the Demographic and Health Surveys Data

Endale Kebede, Wittgenstien center for demography and global human capital (University of vienna, IIASA, VID)
Alex C. Ezeh, Drexel University
Narshil Choi, Drexel University

Our study examines the impact of the framing of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) questions on women reported Desired Family Size (DFS. The DHS questions mothers on their DFS retrospectively, asking them to reflect on their preferences before their first child, whereas childless women are asked about their current DFS. Employing full matching methodology, we assessed the influence of this differential framing on DFS reports. Additionally, we analyzed the effect of the time elapsed since the first birth on mothers' DFS, contrasting mothers with longer versus shorter intervals since their initial childbirth. Our findings reveal that the framing of DFS questions significantly alters mothers' responses, indicating that time since first birth notably increases DFS among mothers, even at lower parities. This suggests that mothers' DFS responses, influenced by retrospective framing, do not accurately represent their present childbearing intentions, highlighting a critical methodological consideration for assessing fertility desires and policies.