The Causal Effect of Primary School Reforms on Women Reproductive Behaviors in Ethiopia. Is the Expansion in Education Quantity the Primary Mechanism?

Endale Kebede, Wittgenstien center for demography and global human capital (University of vienna, IIASA, VID)

This study examines the demographic effects of Africa's educational reforms, specifically focusing on the 1994 Ethiopian school reform's impact on fertility. While prior research has primarily linked these reforms to increased educational attainment, this analysis explores the trade-off between enhanced school enrollment and the potential decline in educational quality. Employing a formal mediation analysis, we dissect the fertility effects of the Ethiopian reform into contributions from increased years of schooling and other effects independent of educational duration. Our findings reveal that the reform's influence on fertility is predominantly due to factors other than extended education quantity. Despite the expectation that higher enrollment would reduce fertility, the effects were insufficient to counterbalance the positive fertility outcomes driven by unidentified mechanisms. This highlights the necessity of addressing adverse consequences, such as reduced educational quality, to maximize the benefits of similar educational reforms.