Mortality Inequalities around the World (1950-2022): Is There a Stall in Convergence?

Ashira Menashe-Oren, Universite catholique de Louvain (UCL)
Bruno Masquelier, Louvain University (UCL)

According to the demographic transition theory, mortality is expected to decline and countries that start their transition later to catch up with the pioneers. Yet, as mortality decline is associated with changes in age patterns, can we always expect convergence, or reduced inequalities across countries? We examine convergence at the national level using disaggregated mortality over the life course. We employ estimates of age-specific mortality rates from the 2022 UN World Population Prospects, and examine convergence using two metrics: the dispersion measure of mortality and the Gini Index for infant mortality, child mortality, and ten-year age groups thereon till age 95. We find that age-specific mortality rates have converged since the 1950s, but this has not occurred in older age groups. Moreover, divergence is most apparent in sub-Saharan Africa. As such, convergence in mortality could stall in the near future, as the burden of mortality shifts to older ages.