Updating Population Projections for Africa: Short-Term Trends and Their Long-Term Consequences

Anne Goujon, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Samir KC, IIASA

In this paper, we examine how the results of population projections to 2100 for Africa have changed between the 2013 and 2023 rounds and attempt to provide explanations for these changes. The first set of population projections following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) was developed in 2013. They have found widespread use within the environmental and climate change community. In 2021, the SSP community requested an update of the human core of the SSPs, which is based on 2020 as the reference year. This update entails adjustments to certain short-term assumptions grounded in recent observed changes. Overall, the more rapid decline in child mortality and the slower fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa than expected would lead to higher population growth and a larger absolute population in 2100 than expected in the previous version. This presents significant challenges due to its impact on society, the environment and resource availability.