Malaria in the Era of Climate Change in Africa: A Rapid Evidence Synthesis

Tesfaye Dagne Weldemarium, Ethiopian Public Health Institute
Firmaye Bogale, Ethiopian Public Health Institute
Dagmawit Solomon, Ethiopian Public Health Institute

Climate change will increase all-age malaria mortality by 2.6%. The occurrence of transmission peaks in the temperature range of 26–28 °c. The Western and some region of Central Africa might lose their suitability for A. arabiensis and A. gambiae. In contrast, the Southern and Eastern part might become more favourable for the development of these malaria vectors. Substantial increases in populations at risk are projected in East Africa. Urbanization act synergistically with warming climate as ‘heat islands’ and creating vector breeding habitat. Dams in SSA are expected to add 1.2–1.6 million malaria cases annually in the 2020s and 2.4–3.0 million cases annually in the 2080s. The relationship between malaria and temperature is positively weak. At higher temperature survival rate of malaria decreases. So, under the hottest and driest scenarios near elimination of mosquito populations is predicted.