The Transformation of China's Demographic Dividend and Its Possible Implications for Africa

Fan Huang, Nankai University

Demographic dividend (DD) has contributed significantly to China's "economic miracle", and reviewing its transformation and comparing it to Africa’s may have beneficial implications. This paper depicts the evolution of DD over nearly 70 years using census and explores the relationship between DD and education and health dividend (EHD) using a fixed-effects model with panel data from 293 cities spanning 15 years in China. Results show that when the contribution of DD to economic growth diminishes, EHD replaces DD to play a more positive role in economic development. And comparison reveals that Eastern Africa, Middle Africa, and Western Africa are in the early stages of releasing DD, while Northern and Southern Africa are more similar to China. Based on the Chinese experience and this paper’s results, reform and opening-up and population modernization are crucial for DD, while investment in health and education is more important at later stages.