Levels, Trends and Inequalities in Mortality among 5–19-Year-Olds in Tanzania: Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance Study (1995-2022)

Sophia Kagoye, National Institute for Medical Research
Eveline Konje, Catholic University of Health and Allied Sciences
Jim Todd, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
Charles Mangya, National Institute for Medical Research
Mark Urassa, National Institute for Medical Research, Mwanza
Abdoulaye Maïga, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Milly Marston, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
Ties Boerma, University of Manitoba

This study aimed to determine long-term trends and inequalities in child and adolescent mortality, using population data from Magu health and demographic surveillance site in northwest Tanzania from 1995-2022. Mortality risks at 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 years declined to 5-6 per 1,000 during the final period. The average rate of decline increased with age from 2.0, 2.7 and 2.9% at 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 years, however lower compared to 1-4 years (4.8% decline). Boys, children in rural villages and children in the poorest households had considerably higher mortality than girls (5-14 years), semi-urban villages and those in the richest households, respectively. The trend data suggest that a greater focus on health and survival of children beyond age 5 years can accelerate the mortality decline, especially when focused on the more disadvantaged children and adolescents. Further investments in mortality measurement and monitoring in this age group are critical for successful programs.