Unveiling Vulnerability: Exploring the Impact of Shock Exposure and Population Changes in Malawi

Kimberly Cole, USAID
Killian Mutiro, USAID

Malawi faces persistent high exposure to household shocks exacerbated by climate change and population growth. Using data from the Malawi Integrated Household Surveys, USAID's GeoCenter conducted analyses across recent datasets. Household shock analyses revealed varying contributing factors. The most indicative of shock vulnerability are: literacy (including in English), possession of agricultural assets, quality of dwelling infrastructure, and urban or rural residence. The analyses aid in identifying and addressing prevalent vulnerabilities. Vulnerabilities can be addressed through literacy enhancement, agricultural asset bolstering, and infrastructure improvement. Government-led fertility reduction programs alone will have little effect on population density and vulnerability to shocks. Interventions should anticipate 3-5 shocks per household annually, primarily linked to agriculture, and must integrate across sectors to effectively mitigate vulnerabilities. A holistic response is crucial for Malawi's resilience and development. These analyses can help Malawian leaders, development partners and the private sector know what to focus on.