Estimating Fertility Using Completed Parity Distribution

Caleb Ongong'a, University of Nairobi

The fertility transition involves a decline in the number of children per woman from high to low levels. This phenomenon, documented to have originated in Western Europe during the industrial revolution, has gained interest among demographers. Economic, sociological, and biological theories have been used to explain fertility decline, but contemporary discourse highlights ideational change as a significant factor. Total fertility rate (TFR), a widely criticized measure, fails to accurately represent fertility due to its inability to control for parity distribution and duration since last birth. Inter-cohort fertility change, focusing on women's reproductive behavior through cohort measures, offers a clearer understanding. Analysis of Kenyan data indicates a consistent fertility decline, with stalling observed among urban residents and those with higher education. Policies targeting fertility reduction should prioritize rural residents, the less educated, and the married. This study underscores the need for alternative approaches to understanding fertility transition.