Changing Perceptions of Climate-Related Risk and Fertility Intentions in Malawi: Longitudinal Narratives of Uncertainty

Monica J. Grant, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Katherine J. Curtis, University of Wisconsin-Madison

We use longitudinal in-depth interviews to explore how repeated exposure to extreme weather events shape perceptions of climate-related risk and the consequences of these perceptions for fertility intentions and behaviors in rural Malawi. Our data were collected in the months following Cyclone Idai (2019) and Cyclone Freddy (2023), allowing us to compare how respondents incorporate these experiences into their narratives of the future and how these narratives change over time. Preliminary analyses indicate an increasing focus on uncertain climate conditions over time, with an emphasis on concerns about food security and maintaining the health of existing children. These pervasive concerns motivate desires for birth intervals of five months or longer. The final paper will explore the links between climate-related uncertainty, concerns about maternal/child health, and intentions for birth postponement. Our findings have implications for theories of fertility decline, with an emphasis on how climate fluctuations may shape fertility trends.