South Sudan Population Estimation Survey (Pes), 2021: up-to-Date Modelled Population Estimates

Francis Tukwasibwe, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
Demola Olajide, UNFPA
Wellington Mbithi, UNFPA

The goal of the 2021 South Sudan Population Estimation Survey (PES) was to provide current and reliable population estimates to inform development planning and service delivery. The PES was conducted at the backdrop of substantial changes population distribution, in recent years, occasioned by internal and international displacement due to conflicts and periods of severe flooding; limited population data with the previous population and housing census conducted in 2008. The PES was based on enumeration of all people from 1,536 sampled sites (micro census). The Schematic of a modelled population estimates was: Micro Census (Population Counts) + Geospatial Covariates = Population Estimation (Prediction of population in the unsurveyed areas based on covariates, using statistical modelling). The survey generated modeled population estimate of 12,444,018 people (6,582,929 females, 5,861,089 males) and shows significant variations from the projected population in Warrap and Northern Bahr el (increase) Gazal, Upper Nile and Jonglei states (decrease).