Unravelling Factors Influencing Demand for Modern Contraception and Evaluating Coverage Progress since 2015 in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria: Insights from Multilevel and Geostatistical Modelling

McEwen Khundi, African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP)
Themba Mzembe, African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP)
Tabitha Ngwira, African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP)
Chifuniro S Mankhwala, African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP)
Chimwemwe Chifungo, African Institute for Development Policy
Maame Peterson, African Institute for Development Policy
Nyovani Madise
Michael Chipeta, African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP)

In this study, we examine an SDG indicator: the percentage of women aged 15-49 whose family planning needs are met by modern contraception (mDFPS). We evaluate both the factors influencing its coverage and its progress from 2015 to the latest period with data. We used DHS and PMA surveys from Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria. We assessed individual and community-level predictors of mDFPS. Varied individual and community-level determinants emerged, highlighting the countries' uniqueness. The geostatistical modelling results indicate mDFPS stagnation in most administrative areas. Geographic disparities persisted over time, favouring affluent regions. Ethiopia and Nigeria showed minimal mDFPS improvement, while Kenya exhibited increased coverage. Nine out of 47 counties in Kenya in 2022 exceeded the WHO mDFPS coverage recommendation of 75%. The study unveils demographic, geographic, and socioeconomic mDFPS disparities, signalling progress and stagnation across administrative areas. The findings offer policymakers and governments insights into targeting interventions for improving mDFPS coverage.