Socioeconomic Determinants of Population-Level Fertility Change in Rural Malawi

Albert Dube, Malawi Epidemiology and Intervention Research Unit
Estelle McLean, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
Kondwani Mwandira, Malawi Epidemiology and Intervention Research Unit
Shekinah Munthali, Malawi Epidemiology and Intervention Research Unit
Thandile Gondwe, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Alison Price, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Owen Nkoka, University of Glasgow
Amelia Crampin, Karonga Prevention Study

This paper aims to investigate determinants of population level fertility change in rural Malawi using data from Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Survival data analysis techniques were used to compute crude fertility rates by different socio-demographic factors. Our results show that fertility has been declining from 2005-2007 to 2020-2022 for all sociodemographic groups. Our descriptive analysis show that sharp fertility rate declines have been observed in age specific fertility rates and in fertility rates by education status. For instance fertility fell from 331.9 (315.4-349.2) births per 1000 person years in 2005-2007 to 215.2 (204.7-226.2) in 2020-2022 among women aged 20-24 years. Our descriptive analysis is ongoing, and will continue to include, proximity of other family members, age at marriage and divorce experiences. This will be followed by analytical investigations of factors that are explaining changes in fertility rates over the analysis period