Fertility and Cultural Models of Capturing the Demographic Dividend in Ssa. : Use of Ardl Temporal and Endogeneity Models.

Claude Mbarga Ella, IFORD

This article aims to sharpen the understanding of the capture of the demographic dividend in Africa (African cultural model of DD), by examining the short-term and long-term consequences of the decline in fertility and the dependency ratio on the evolution of per capita income and by integrating the endogeneity factors of the change of these three variables (fertility, dependency, GINI) on the overall level of the economy. This is to contribute to the construction of a cultural model for capturing the Demographic Dividend that is closer to the African context, which integrates issues of endogeneity and temporal level. The study uses macro data from the World Development Indicator, covering the period from 1960 to 2023 (WDI), and Toda and Yamamoto's approach to analyzing the causality of variables. The results show that the capture of the demographic dividend of African countries is endogenous and undergoes temporal shifts in fertility