Statistical Demography Meets Ministry of Health: The Case of the Family Planning Estimation Tool

Leontine Alkema, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Herbert Susmann, University of Massachusetts at Amherst
Evan Ray, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Kristin Bietsch, Avenir Health
Priya Emmart, Avenir Health
Rebecca Rosenberg, Avenir Health
John Stover, Futures Institute
Emily Sonneveldt, Avenir Health
Shauna Mooney, Maynooth University
Niamh Cahill, Maynooth University

The Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) is used in low- and middle-income countries to produce estimates and short-term forecast of family planning indicators, such as modern contraceptive use and unmet need for contraceptives. Estimates are obtained via a Bayesian statistical model that is fitted to country-specific data from surveys and service statistics data. In this paper, we summarize the main features of the statistical model used in the Family Estimation Tool, explain how the tool is used in countries, and summarize recent updates related to subnational estimation, the use of service statistics data, and dealing with data outliers. We use our experience with FPET to discuss lessons learned and open challenges related to the broader field of statistical modeling for monitoring for demographic and global health indicators, to help further optimize the relevance of statistical modeling in practice.