Small Area Population Projections: Suitability of Hamilton-Perry Model in Undertaking Population Projections by Age and Sex for Selected Sub-Counties in Nyeri and Vihiga Counties in Kenya

Job Mose, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
Samwel Wakibi, University of Nairobi
Alfred Titus Agwanda Otieno, University of Nairobi

The study was undertaken to determine the suitability of the Hamilton-Perry model in undertaking sub-county population projections by age and sex using selected sub-counties in Nyeri and Vihiga Counties in Kenya. The study used the 1999, 2009 and 2019 census data for the selected sub-counties. Vihiga county was selected because it had the highest out migration rate of 97 in 2019 census while Nyeri was selected due to its stable Total Fertility Rete (TFR) and low out migration rate. The projection had good precision for Nyeri County, Vihiga County and Vihiga Sub-county and had average precision for Kieni West, Kieni East and Emuhaya Sub-counties. Conclusions: The study results from the two sub-counties of Nyeri and Vihiga Counties, showed that the HP population projection model can be used reliably to undertake population projections for the sub-counties of Kenya.