Fertility Trends and Patterns among Black South African Women in South Africa. A Re-Assessment Using the Reverse Survival Method

Ahuejere Leonard, Stats SA
Lutendo Malisha, Statistics South Africa

Fertility levels has been declining in South Africa, with no effort made in re–assessing and establishing the validity of prevailing patterns retrospectively. The Census Survey data (1996–2016) were used to re-examine (backward-project), fertility levels/pattern, trends and differentials among Black South African women of childbearing age, using the Reverse Survival indirect estimation method (RSM). The study confirmed that fertility levels were low and declining over the years among the study sample. TFR declined from 4.7 to 2.5, while the GFR declined from 157 to 83 live births per 1 000 women (1982–2016). Although converging, sub–group differentials revealed fertility rates closer to replacement levels in the urban areas and less traditional provinces. Overall, the study established the validity of existing patterns. Demonstrated that the RSM is a robust and reliable method, providing internal validity checks and accuracy of existing transitions. Findings contributes to knowledge, crucial to policy developments.